Former Currency trader at JPMorgan Chase. TOP 9 Unemployment NFP or Non Farm 1 Payroll 6 Retail sales Will US employment continue to grow?

For example, if the U. trade the U. more dollars flow out of the U. and the value of the U. currency depreciates. ongoing uncertainty for the U. If the deficit is greater than Stretch, London-based head of market expectations however, it can trigger a foreign-exchange strategy at CIBC. negative price movement. After three straight years of gains, strategists All traderswill find it are forecasting the U.

currency will be a world beater again in , strengthening valuable to know when against seven of 10 developed-world peers important economic data by the end of the year, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey. This world keep them flat or lower. economic monetary policy. Section 02 Key drivers of currency movements Key indicators A closer look at some indicators Stock market Even day and swing traders will find it valuable to keep up with incoming economic reports from the conditions major economies.

Stock markets have a significant impact on exchange rate movements because they are a major place for high-volume currency movements. When foreign investors There are times where sentiment in the equity move their money to a markets will be the precursor to major moves in the forex market. If the stock equity market is particular stock equity rising, investment dollars generally come in to seize the opportunity.

Alternatively, falling equity market, they convert markets could prompt domestic investors to sell their capital in a their shares of local publicly traded firms to take advantage of investment opportunities abroad. domestic currency and To understand this further, let's imagine that the push the demand for it UK economy is booming, and its stock market is higher, making the performing well. Meanwhile, in the United States, a lackluster economy is creating a shortage of currency appreciate.

investment opportunities. In this type of environment U. investors will feel When the equity more inclined to sell their U. dollars and buy British pounds to participate in the markets are outperformance of the UK economy. When they elect to do so, it results in the outflow of capital experiencing recessions, from the United States and the inflow of capital however, foreign into the United Kingdom. pushing the domestic currency down.

Section 02 Key drivers of currency movements Key indicators The most overrated indicator GDP is no longer a big deal GDP report has also become one of least important economic indicators on the U. calendar, as it has led to some of the smallest relative movements in the EURUSD. One possible explanation is that GDP is released less frequently than other data in our study it comes out quarterly versus monthly , but in general, the GDP report is more prone to ambiguity and misinterpretation.

For example, surging GDP brought about by rising exports will be positive for the home currency; however, if GDP growth is a result of inventory buildup, the effect on the currency may actually be negative.

Also, a large number of the components that comprise the GDP report are known in advance of the release. Section 02 Key drivers of currency movements Most volatile news reports That traders should follow closely Volatility and profits in forex are measured in pips. The bigger the volatility the more pips and money a trader can make from a certain trade. Keep this chart by your side and make sure to mark these reports in your calendar! Unemployment indicator, showing if U.

employment is growing or not. interest rates. Inflation indicator. for month prior to the release of the report. Section 02 Key drivers of currency movements Economic indicators What you need to know about them Part 1 What are Economic Indicators?

Economic indicators are snippets of financial and economic data published regularly by governmental agencies and the private sector. These statistics help market observers monitor the economy's pulse - so it's no surprise that they're followed by almost everyone in the financial markets. With so many people poised to react to the same information, economic indicators have tremendous potential to generate volume and move prices. It might seem like you need an advanced economics degree to parse all this data accurately - but in fact traders need only keep a few simple guidelines in mind when making trading decisions based on this data.

Mark Your Economic Calendars Watching the economic calendar not only helps you consider trades around these events, it helps explain otherwise unanticipated price actions during those periods. Consider this scenario: it's Monday morning and the USD has been falling for 3 weeks, with many traders short USD positions as a result. On Friday, however, U. employment data is scheduled to be released. If that report looks promising, traders may start unwinding their short positions before Friday, leading to a short-term rally in USD through the week.

Know exactly when each economic indicator will be released. You can find these calendars at the New York Federal Reserve Bank's site. What does This Data Mean for the Economy? You need not understand every nuance of each data release, but you should try to grasp key, large-scale relationships between reports and what they measure in the economy.

For example, you should know which indicators measure the economy's growth gross domestic product, or GDP versus those that measure inflation PPI, CPI or employment strength non-farm payrolls. Not All Economic Indicators can Move Markets The market may pay attention to different indicators under different conditions.

That focus can change over time and from one currency to another. For example, if prices inflation are not a crucial issue for a given country, but its economic growth is problematic, traders may pay less attention to inflation data and focus on employment data or GDP reports. Section 02 Key drivers of currency movements Economic indicators What you need to know about them Part 2 Watch for the Unexpected Often the data itself may not be as important as whether or not it falls within market expectations.

If a given report differs widely and unexpectedly from what economists and market pundits were anticipating, market volatility and potential trading opportunities may result. At the same time, be careful of pulling the trigger too quickly when an indicator falls outside expectations. Each new economic indicator release contains revisions to previously released data.

Don't Get Caught Up in Details While your macroeconomics professor may appreciate all the nuances of an economic report, traders need to filter data to focus on the numbers that can inform their trading decisions. For example, many new traders watch the headlines of the employment report, for example, assuming that new jobs are key to economic growth.

That may be true generally, but in trading terms non-farm payroll is the figure traders watch most closely and therefore has the biggest impact on markets. Similarly, PPI measures changes in producer prices generally - but traders tend to watch PPI excluding food and energy as a market driver. Food and energy data tend to be much too volatile and subject to revisions to provide an accurate reading on producer price changes.

There are Two Sides to Every Trade Just remember that no trader's knowledge can be complete all the time. You might have a great handle on economic data published in Europe - but there are times when data published in the U. or Australia might have a surprising impact on your currency market. Doing your homework before trading any currency can help you make better decisions.

unemployment rate is expected to increase. Imagine that last month the unemployment rate was at 8. With a consensus at 9. economy, and as a result, a weaker dollar.

They will go ahead and start selling off their dollars for other currencies before the actual number is released. What the heck! This is because the big players have already adjusted their positions way before the news report even came out and may now be taking profits after the run up to the news event.

The market players thought the unemployment rate would rise to 9. Now that the report is released and it says something totally different from what they had anticipated, they are all trying to adjust their positions as fast as possible. This would also happen if the actual report released an unemployment rate of The only difference would be that instead of the dollar rallying, it would drop like a rock! Since the market consensus was 9. looks a lot weaker now than when the forecasts were first released.

Instability in the world likelihood of Clinton becoming the next market prods investors to pull out of their president, Lim Say Boon, chief investment financial positions, leading to currency officer at DBS Bank Ltd. in Singapore, wrote depreciation. in a report. The Super Tuesday results are being seen as "an outcome for continuity over the disruption threatened by Trump and Sanders," he said.

You must remember that investors hate uncertainty! Similar effects have occured with Clinton and Obama.

For Trump the upward trend was also there due to his promise to lower taxes and increase government spending on infrastrucure. Section 02 Key drivers of currency movements Market psychology The golden rule of economic indicators The currency rates often start moving even before the actual data comes out due to forecasts and market sentiment!

Sentiment analysis is a kind of FX analysis that concentrates on indicating and consequently measuring the overall psychological and emotional state of all participants of the foreign exchange market.

This kind of Forex analysis strives to quantify what percentage of FX market participants are bullish or bearish, in other words being optimistic or pessimistic.

If the forecast promised a positive growth and the actual data comes out even better than forecasted, it amplifies the rise of the currency even more.

Overlap between two The Foreign Exchange market operates 24 hours a day, making it nearly impossible sessions for a single trader to track every market Generally, whenever there is an overlap in movement and respond immediately at the market e. In period. For instance, every morning during order to devise an effective and London Open session. Euro pairs are active time-efficient investment strategy, it is and if you have a good strategy, you could important to understand how much get pips.

liquidity there is around the clock to maximize the number of trading opportunities during a trader's own 2. News Release market hours. Fundamentals drive the market. During News Release, volatility is experienced and Besides liquidity, a currency pair's trading some pairs could move over pips range is also heavily dependent on depending on the type of news. For example geographical location and macroeconomic Non-Farm Payroll is the most volatile news factors. release and dollar based currency pairs could move hundreds of pips in seconds.

Knowing what time of day a currency pair However, trading news is risky if you are not has the highest or narrowest trading knowledgeable about it. volatility will undoubtedly help traders improve their investment utility due to better capital allocation. Central Bank Govenor's Speech High volatility offers lucrative profit Speeches from these guys could make pairs potentials to short-term traders.

Lower go hundred's of pips and even change volatility under 80 pips per day is better market sentiment with effects lasting into for risk-averse traders, because there are months. However, its risky to trade these less iregular market movements caused by speeches except you are subscribed to some aggressive intraday speculation.

Section 03 Forex timing What Are the Best Times to Trade Forex We strongly advice you to avoid all resources that traders can then purchase currencies from tell you Forex market is a fairy-tale place where different continents. The timing in forex trading is is usually the most active as it involves many crucial! countries of the European Union. The US market comes next, so the time when the London session The Forex market is open 24 hours a day, but it is intersects with the US session usually provides the not active all this time!

In Forex trading money is biggest returns. Expert traders consider 10 AM to made when the market is active when traders are be the best time as this is the period when the bidding on the prices so it is crucial for you to London market is preparing to close the trades learn about the most productive hours of the day and traders are getting ready to move to US and of the week for trading the forex!

This creates big swings in currency prices thus opening great opportunities for profit. There are three major trading sessions of the Forex market: London, US and Tokyo session. Fridays are busy as well, but only until PM and during the second half of the day the movements can be very unpredictable. While it is crucial to understand when is the best time to analyze the charts and make the bids, it is equally important to know when NOT to open positions. A thin market also comes with higher commissions spreads for each trade due to the decreased liquidity.

In simple words: if you want to sell a currency, it is harder to find potential buyers, so the broker or bank must increase the commission as it takes a risk of not finding a buyer so quickly. A good example of chaotic trading is shortly before, during and shortly after important news events. In these times of uncertainty, the currency rates can swing wildly and unpredictably, thus messing up trading by creating execution lags, triggering stop-loss orders, etc.

Usually, the higher the liquidity, the lower the volatility, and therefore the tighter the spread Spread is like a commission that you pay for the trade.

However, even major pairs can experience wider than normal spreads during volatile periods, such as interest rates announcements, GDP reports, unemployment figures, to name a few examples. There will also be wider spreads during off market hours, when there is only a fraction of the participants in the market, so the liquidity is lower.

This can be seen when the markets open for the Asian session, at GMT Sunday, for example. This widening occurs typically around news announcements or off-market hours. Most forex brokers allow you to trade all weekend, but spreads will be significantly wider during weekends when liquidity is almost non-existent.

Dealing desk or market making brokers are going to widen their spreads coming into economic announcements to offset the risk they take on by filling orders. Unfortunately, banks do the same thing, so an average forex broker could be better, but only marginally.

What happens before or during important announcements. The volatility jumps before important anouncements and the drastic movements can hit the stop-losses, resulting in a lost trade and investment. wild swings based on rumours etc. So I generally close the position or wait out the increased spread unless it is really pumping. This should not be a problem if you are trading the higher time frames as your stop will probably be quite large and so increasing it by 5 or 10 pips probably won't be too significant risk increase better yet - factor in the widened spread when you calculate your position size as you know that if the trade works out you will be holding for a few days or more, in which time there will be anouncements.

If you can't be at your computer when the news anuncement hits, I would suggest leaving your stop wider for the periods that you can't manage the trade unless there are no announcements over that period. If you are trading lower time frames however, your stops will inevitably be smaller and the increase in stop size may substantially increase your risk.

In this case, you may have to decide to close the position before the anouncment or close enough of the position so that the increased stop will equal the same loss as the originally intended loss.

But make no mistake - you will have to widen your stop. The spread will get you. Even if the announcement is in your favour, price generally whips up and down at least a few pips before taking direction.

If your stop is anywhere near price just prior to news, chances are you will be taken out not matter what the result. Just be aware of the anouncement times and factor this in when deciding wether or not to take a trade. It may often seem that these indicators are contradictory. Analyses of longer time periods show tendencies, ignoring accidental changes, whereas daily, hourly ir minute graphs help in choosing the moment to open and close positions.

Example Multiple time frame analysis time X Let us look at a daily graph. What do most traders do when they see such a curve? Aug Sep Okt Nov Dec Conclusion For successful and precise market analysis, you must use at least time frames!

Section 04 Time frames Time frame choice of pros The shortest time frame that traders should start looking at when their trading day starts are daily charts, even if you are trading on a 5-minute time frame! The most common form of multiple time frame analysis is to use daily charts to identify the overall trend and then use the hourly charts to determine specific entry levels.

As a matter of principle, all good traders I know use 2—3 time frames 3 being the best spaced enough so that each timeframe above encompasses 4—8 bars from the lower time frame. Even then, I prefer to switch to the other time frames to be really sure about what to do. It attempts to predict price action and trends by analyzing economic indicators, government policy, societal and other factors within a business cycle framework.

If you think of the markets as a big clock, fundamentals are the gears and springs that move the hands around the face. Anyone can tell you what time it is now, but the fundamentalist knows about the inner workings that move the clock's hands towards times or prices in the future.

What is Technical Analysis Unlike fundamental analysis, technical analysis focuses on the study of price movements. Technical analysts use historical currency data to forecast the direction of future prices. The underlying belief behind technical analysis is that all current market information is already reflected in the price of that currency; therefore, studying price action is all that is required to make informed trading decisions.

In a nutshell, technical analysis assumes that history will repeat itself. Beware of "Analysis Paralysis" Forecasting models are both art and science, with so many different approaches that traders can get overloaded. It can be tough to decide when you know enough to pull the trigger on a trade with confidence. Many traders switch to technical analysis at this point to test their hunches and see when price patterns suggest an entry.

Look for Fundamental Drivers First The fundamentals include everything that makes a country and its currency tick. From interest rates and central bank policy to natural disasters, the fundamentals are a dynamic mix of distinct plans, erratic behaviors and unforeseen events. No one will ever win the age-long battle between technical and fundamental analysis.

Prior to the mids, fundamental traders dominated the FX market. However, with the advent of new technologies, the influence of technical trading on the FX market has increased significantly. Nowadays the best strategies tend to be the ones that combine both fundamental and technical analysis.

Textbook perfect technical formations have failed too often because of major fundamental news and events like U. nonfarm payrolls. Most individual traders will start trading with technical analysis because for some it is But trading on fundamentals alone can also easier to understand and does not require be risky.

There will oftentimes be sharp hours of news and fact checking. gyrations in the price of currency on a day when there are no news or economic Technical analysts can also follow many reports. currencies and markets at one time, whereas fundamental analysts tend to focus on a few This suggests that the price action is driven pairs due to the overwhelming amount of by nothing more than flows, sentiment, and data in the market.

pattern formations. Nonetheless, technical analysis works well Therefore, it is very important for technical because the currency market tends to traders to be aware of the key economic data develop strong trends.

Once technical or events that are scheduled for release, and, analysis is mastered, it can be applied with in turn, for fundamental traders to be aware equal ease to any time frame or currency of important technical levels that the general traded.

market may be focusing on. However, as we already noted - it is important to take both strategies into consideration, as fundamental analysis can trigger technical movements such as breakouts or reversal in trends. Technical analysis, on the other hand, can also explain moves that fundamentals cannot, especially in quiet markets, causing resistance in trends or unexplainable movements. Wang, who started trading futures in , said he supplements his fundamental analysis of commodities supply and demand with simple forms of technical analysis.

Demand for retail forex trading has jumped in recent years, and this prompted many beginners to jump into the trading markets. Some of the top Financial Conduct Authority-regulated forex brokers in the UK suitable for beginner traders and good edudcation PDFs are:.

Forex brokers in the USA must be registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission CFTC and be a member of the National Futures Association NFA. Some of the US-regulated forex brokers that offer suitable services for beginner traders are:. In order to operate in Kenya, forex brokers must be registered and authorised by Capital Markets Authority CMA. Here are some of the forex brokers regulated in Kenya offering quality educational resources:.

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What is Forex Trading? There are two primary ways forex traders make money: Taking profit from the change in the exchange rate Making profits or losses from the interest rates differentials of two currencies Beginners in Forex Trading?

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Section 02 Key drivers of currency movements Economic indicators What you need to know about them Part 2 Watch for the Unexpected Often the data itself may not be as important as whether or not it falls within market expectations. Monitoring exchange rates is essential to predicting earnings and corporate profitability. XM — Best Platform CFD trading for beginners pdf RoboMarkets — Best MT5 Forex trading pdf Broker Capital. Aug Sep Okt Nov Dec Conclusion For successful and precise market analysis, you must use at least time frames! Tickmill Review.

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