Section 02 Key drivers of currency movements Economic indicators What you need to know about them Part 2 Watch for the Unexpected Often the data itself may not be as important as whether or not it falls within market expectations.

If a given report differs widely and unexpectedly from what economists and market pundits were anticipating, market volatility and potential trading opportunities may result. At the same time, be careful of pulling the trigger too quickly when an indicator falls outside expectations. Each new economic indicator release contains revisions to previously released data. Don't Get Caught Up in Details While your macroeconomics professor may appreciate all the nuances of an economic report, traders need to filter data to focus on the numbers that can inform their trading decisions.

For example, many new traders watch the headlines of the employment report, for example, assuming that new jobs are key to economic growth. That may be true generally, but in trading terms non-farm payroll is the figure traders watch most closely and therefore has the biggest impact on markets. Similarly, PPI measures changes in producer prices generally - but traders tend to watch PPI excluding food and energy as a market driver. Food and energy data tend to be much too volatile and subject to revisions to provide an accurate reading on producer price changes.

There are Two Sides to Every Trade Just remember that no trader's knowledge can be complete all the time. You might have a great handle on economic data published in Europe - but there are times when data published in the U. or Australia might have a surprising impact on your currency market. Doing your homework before trading any currency can help you make better decisions. unemployment rate is expected to increase. Imagine that last month the unemployment rate was at 8.

With a consensus at 9. economy, and as a result, a weaker dollar. They will go ahead and start selling off their dollars for other currencies before the actual number is released. What the heck! This is because the big players have already adjusted their positions way before the news report even came out and may now be taking profits after the run up to the news event.

The market players thought the unemployment rate would rise to 9. Now that the report is released and it says something totally different from what they had anticipated, they are all trying to adjust their positions as fast as possible.

This would also happen if the actual report released an unemployment rate of The only difference would be that instead of the dollar rallying, it would drop like a rock! Since the market consensus was 9. looks a lot weaker now than when the forecasts were first released. Instability in the world likelihood of Clinton becoming the next market prods investors to pull out of their president, Lim Say Boon, chief investment financial positions, leading to currency officer at DBS Bank Ltd.

in Singapore, wrote depreciation. in a report. The Super Tuesday results are being seen as "an outcome for continuity over the disruption threatened by Trump and Sanders," he said. You must remember that investors hate uncertainty! Similar effects have occured with Clinton and Obama. For Trump the upward trend was also there due to his promise to lower taxes and increase government spending on infrastrucure.

Section 02 Key drivers of currency movements Market psychology The golden rule of economic indicators The currency rates often start moving even before the actual data comes out due to forecasts and market sentiment!

Sentiment analysis is a kind of FX analysis that concentrates on indicating and consequently measuring the overall psychological and emotional state of all participants of the foreign exchange market. This kind of Forex analysis strives to quantify what percentage of FX market participants are bullish or bearish, in other words being optimistic or pessimistic.

If the forecast promised a positive growth and the actual data comes out even better than forecasted, it amplifies the rise of the currency even more. Overlap between two The Foreign Exchange market operates 24 hours a day, making it nearly impossible sessions for a single trader to track every market Generally, whenever there is an overlap in movement and respond immediately at the market e.

In period. For instance, every morning during order to devise an effective and London Open session. Euro pairs are active time-efficient investment strategy, it is and if you have a good strategy, you could important to understand how much get pips. liquidity there is around the clock to maximize the number of trading opportunities during a trader's own 2.

News Release market hours. Fundamentals drive the market. During News Release, volatility is experienced and Besides liquidity, a currency pair's trading some pairs could move over pips range is also heavily dependent on depending on the type of news.

For example geographical location and macroeconomic Non-Farm Payroll is the most volatile news factors. release and dollar based currency pairs could move hundreds of pips in seconds.

Knowing what time of day a currency pair However, trading news is risky if you are not has the highest or narrowest trading knowledgeable about it. volatility will undoubtedly help traders improve their investment utility due to better capital allocation. Central Bank Govenor's Speech High volatility offers lucrative profit Speeches from these guys could make pairs potentials to short-term traders. Lower go hundred's of pips and even change volatility under 80 pips per day is better market sentiment with effects lasting into for risk-averse traders, because there are months.

However, its risky to trade these less iregular market movements caused by speeches except you are subscribed to some aggressive intraday speculation. Section 03 Forex timing What Are the Best Times to Trade Forex We strongly advice you to avoid all resources that traders can then purchase currencies from tell you Forex market is a fairy-tale place where different continents.

The timing in forex trading is is usually the most active as it involves many crucial! countries of the European Union. The US market comes next, so the time when the London session The Forex market is open 24 hours a day, but it is intersects with the US session usually provides the not active all this time!

In Forex trading money is biggest returns. Expert traders consider 10 AM to made when the market is active when traders are be the best time as this is the period when the bidding on the prices so it is crucial for you to London market is preparing to close the trades learn about the most productive hours of the day and traders are getting ready to move to US and of the week for trading the forex! This creates big swings in currency prices thus opening great opportunities for profit.

There are three major trading sessions of the Forex market: London, US and Tokyo session. Fridays are busy as well, but only until PM and during the second half of the day the movements can be very unpredictable. While it is crucial to understand when is the best time to analyze the charts and make the bids, it is equally important to know when NOT to open positions.

A thin market also comes with higher commissions spreads for each trade due to the decreased liquidity. In simple words: if you want to sell a currency, it is harder to find potential buyers, so the broker or bank must increase the commission as it takes a risk of not finding a buyer so quickly. A good example of chaotic trading is shortly before, during and shortly after important news events. In these times of uncertainty, the currency rates can swing wildly and unpredictably, thus messing up trading by creating execution lags, triggering stop-loss orders, etc.

Usually, the higher the liquidity, the lower the volatility, and therefore the tighter the spread Spread is like a commission that you pay for the trade. However, even major pairs can experience wider than normal spreads during volatile periods, such as interest rates announcements, GDP reports, unemployment figures, to name a few examples. There will also be wider spreads during off market hours, when there is only a fraction of the participants in the market, so the liquidity is lower.

This can be seen when the markets open for the Asian session, at GMT Sunday, for example. This widening occurs typically around news announcements or off-market hours. Most forex brokers allow you to trade all weekend, but spreads will be significantly wider during weekends when liquidity is almost non-existent. Dealing desk or market making brokers are going to widen their spreads coming into economic announcements to offset the risk they take on by filling orders.

Unfortunately, banks do the same thing, so an average forex broker could be better, but only marginally. What happens before or during important announcements. The volatility jumps before important anouncements and the drastic movements can hit the stop-losses, resulting in a lost trade and investment. wild swings based on rumours etc. So I generally close the position or wait out the increased spread unless it is really pumping. This should not be a problem if you are trading the higher time frames as your stop will probably be quite large and so increasing it by 5 or 10 pips probably won't be too significant risk increase better yet - factor in the widened spread when you calculate your position size as you know that if the trade works out you will be holding for a few days or more, in which time there will be anouncements.

If you can't be at your computer when the news anuncement hits, I would suggest leaving your stop wider for the periods that you can't manage the trade unless there are no announcements over that period. If you are trading lower time frames however, your stops will inevitably be smaller and the increase in stop size may substantially increase your risk.

In this case, you may have to decide to close the position before the anouncment or close enough of the position so that the increased stop will equal the same loss as the originally intended loss. But make no mistake - you will have to widen your stop. The spread will get you.

Even if the announcement is in your favour, price generally whips up and down at least a few pips before taking direction. If your stop is anywhere near price just prior to news, chances are you will be taken out not matter what the result.

Just be aware of the anouncement times and factor this in when deciding wether or not to take a trade. It may often seem that these indicators are contradictory. Analyses of longer time periods show tendencies, ignoring accidental changes, whereas daily, hourly ir minute graphs help in choosing the moment to open and close positions.

Example Multiple time frame analysis time X Let us look at a daily graph. What do most traders do when they see such a curve? Aug Sep Okt Nov Dec Conclusion For successful and precise market analysis, you must use at least time frames! Section 04 Time frames Time frame choice of pros The shortest time frame that traders should start looking at when their trading day starts are daily charts, even if you are trading on a 5-minute time frame!

The most common form of multiple time frame analysis is to use daily charts to identify the overall trend and then use the hourly charts to determine specific entry levels. As a matter of principle, all good traders I know use 2—3 time frames 3 being the best spaced enough so that each timeframe above encompasses 4—8 bars from the lower time frame.

Even then, I prefer to switch to the other time frames to be really sure about what to do. It attempts to predict price action and trends by analyzing economic indicators, government policy, societal and other factors within a business cycle framework.

If you think of the markets as a big clock, fundamentals are the gears and springs that move the hands around the face. Anyone can tell you what time it is now, but the fundamentalist knows about the inner workings that move the clock's hands towards times or prices in the future.

What is Technical Analysis Unlike fundamental analysis, technical analysis focuses on the study of price movements. Technical analysts use historical currency data to forecast the direction of future prices.

The underlying belief behind technical analysis is that all current market information is already reflected in the price of that currency; therefore, studying price action is all that is required to make informed trading decisions.

In a nutshell, technical analysis assumes that history will repeat itself. Beware of "Analysis Paralysis" Forecasting models are both art and science, with so many different approaches that traders can get overloaded. It can be tough to decide when you know enough to pull the trigger on a trade with confidence. Many traders switch to technical analysis at this point to test their hunches and see when price patterns suggest an entry. Look for Fundamental Drivers First The fundamentals include everything that makes a country and its currency tick.

From interest rates and central bank policy to natural disasters, the fundamentals are a dynamic mix of distinct plans, erratic behaviors and unforeseen events. No one will ever win the age-long battle between technical and fundamental analysis. Prior to the mids, fundamental traders dominated the FX market. However, with the advent of new technologies, the influence of technical trading on the FX market has increased significantly.

Nowadays the best strategies tend to be the ones that combine both fundamental and technical analysis. Textbook perfect technical formations have failed too often because of major fundamental news and events like U.

nonfarm payrolls. Most individual traders will start trading with technical analysis because for some it is But trading on fundamentals alone can also easier to understand and does not require be risky. There will oftentimes be sharp hours of news and fact checking. gyrations in the price of currency on a day when there are no news or economic Technical analysts can also follow many reports. currencies and markets at one time, whereas fundamental analysts tend to focus on a few This suggests that the price action is driven pairs due to the overwhelming amount of by nothing more than flows, sentiment, and data in the market.

pattern formations. Nonetheless, technical analysis works well Therefore, it is very important for technical because the currency market tends to traders to be aware of the key economic data develop strong trends.

Once technical or events that are scheduled for release, and, analysis is mastered, it can be applied with in turn, for fundamental traders to be aware equal ease to any time frame or currency of important technical levels that the general traded. market may be focusing on. However, as we already noted - it is important to take both strategies into consideration, as fundamental analysis can trigger technical movements such as breakouts or reversal in trends.

Technical analysis, on the other hand, can also explain moves that fundamentals cannot, especially in quiet markets, causing resistance in trends or unexplainable movements. Wang, who started trading futures in , said he supplements his fundamental analysis of commodities supply and demand with simple forms of technical analysis.

One of his favorite measures is the day moving average. But he closed out the last of those positions on Wednesday, responding to local speculation that producers of coke and coking coal will be allowed to ramp up production. Dollar pair Single currency or Fiber - Euro Swissy - Swiss Franc Loonie - Canadian Dollar Aussie or Ozzie - Australian Dollar Kiwi - New Zealand Dollar Barnie - U. Natural resources often constitute the majority of the countries' exports, and the strength of the economy its currency can be highly dependent on the prices of these natural resources.

These correlations makes them easier to trade. currency, the U. That means gold prices tend to have an inverse relationship to the USD, offering several ways for currency traders to take advantage of that relationship. For example, if gold breaks an important price level, you'd expect gold to move higher.

With this in mind, you might sell dollars and buy Euros, for example, as a proxy for higher gold prices. These two major biggest oil consumer — the United States. currencies tend to strengthen as gold prices Because the US is largely dependent on oil, rise.

You might consider going long these the rise and fall of the commodity will have currencies when gold is increasing in value, an effect not only on the Canadian Dollar but or trade your GBP or JPY for these currencies also on the US Dollar — the higher the price of when gold is on the rise. oil, the higher benefits Canada gets, and the more disadvantaged the US becomes. Monitoring exchange rates is essential to predicting earnings and corporate profitability.

Throughout and , European manufacturers complained extensively about the rapid rise in the euro and the weakness in the U. The main reason for the dollar's selloff at the time was the country's rapidly growing trade and budget deficits. This caused the EURUSD exchange rate to surge, which took a significant toll on the profitability of European corporations because a higher exchange rate makes the goods of European exporters more expensive to U. Unfortunately, inadequate hedging is still a reality in Europe, which makes monitoring the EURUSD exchange rate even more important in forecasting the earnings and profitability of European exporters.

than on foreign markets. But the loans, essentially a bet on the Aussie The price difference in Russia and abroad dollar remaining strong against the franc, made the re-export of cars from Russia went horribly wrong when the dollar lucrative.

plunged in and , costing some borrowers their farms. Seizing on currency disparities, Russians made quick money by re-exporting the vehicles, which got so cheap in ruble terms that selling them back - sometimes to the same country that manufactured them in the first place - became a way to make a good profit.

accelerating pace. They are hoping to buy before the yuan weakens any further. Expectations are mounting for a higher Fed rate target, boosting the appeal of holding dollars. Section 07 How forex influences business Real-world stories to help you understand how forex market works How China became the biggest investor in the U.

Chinese Yuan Renminbi RMB was pegged to the U. In the s, the RMB was devalued to promote growth in China's economy, and between and the People's Bank of China artificially maintained a USDRMB rate of 8. At the time, it received significant criticism because keeping the peg meant that the Chinese government would artificially weaken its currency to make Chinese goods more competitive.

To maintain the band, the Chinese government had to sell the yuan and buy U. dollars each time their currency appreciated above the band's upper limit.

These dollars were then used to purchase U. Treasuries, and this practice turned China into the world's largest holder of U. Risk management involves essentially knowing how much you are willing to risk and how much you are looking to gain. Without a sense of risk management, most traders simply hold on to losing positions for an extremely long amount of time, but take profits on winning positions prematurely. There are a few key guidelines that every trader, regardless of their strategy or what they are trading, should keep in mind.

Risk-reward ratio Stop-loss orders Traders should look to establish a risk-reward ratio for every trade they place. Traders should also employ stop-loss orders In other words, they should have an idea of as a way of specifying the maximum loss how much they are willing to lose, and how they are willing to accept. By using stop-loss much they are looking to gain. Generally, the orders, traders can avoid the common risk-reward ratio should be at least , if not predicament of being in a scenario where more.

Having a solid risk-reward ratio can they have many winning trades but a single prevent traders from entering positions that loss large enough to eliminate any trace of ultimately are not worth the risk.

profitability in the account. Trailing stops to lock in profits are particularly useful. A good habit of more Pros recommend successful traders is to employ the rule of moving your stop to break even as soon as risk-reward ratio, and your position has profited by the same amount that you initially risked through the not risking more than stop order.

single trade. not taking advantage of the full profit potential. Trends last longer than they might seem at first! With the Stop-Loss Order, you in loss. Wait for a beneficial tendency and will be able to control the situation even if then make your move! the rates change unexpectedly. decisions, choose a platform that lets you follow leaders and copy their transactions.

Those who have the time, make they are increased by the number of daily transactions, others choose traders following them. Use trends in your long-term strategies. Keep it steady! close positions. Do you know which tools to use? Here are the three most popular tools: 1.

Oanda news Free Forex market commentary and analysis, statistics and more. Trading in the Zone: Master the Market with Confidence, Discipline, and a Winning Attitude. By Mark Douglas. Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques, Second Edition. By Steve Nison. Currency Trading and Intermarket Analysis: How to Profit from the Shifting Currents in Global Markets. By Ashraf Laïdi. Currencies in higher demand tend to be valued higher than those in less demand.

It's similar to pop stars. Because she's more in demand, Lady Gaga gets paid more than Britney Spears. Same thing with Justin Bieber versus Vanilla Ice. The Government: Present and Future The years and have definitely been the years where more eyes were glaringly watching their respective country's governments, wondering about the financial difficulties being faced, and hoping for some sort of fiscal responsibility that would end the woes felt in our wallets.

Instability in the current government or changes to the current administration can have a direct bearing on that country's economy and even neighboring nations. And any impact to an economy will most likely affect exchange rates. That's right! No wonder you're here to get some education!

There's just way too much information to try to process and way too many things to confuse any newbie trader. That's some insane information overload if we've ever seen it. But information is king when it comes to making successful trades. Price moves because of all of this information: economic reports, a new central bank chairperson, and interest rate changes.

News moves fundamentals and fundamentals move currency pairs! It's your goal to make successful trades and that becomes a lot easier when you know why price is moving that way it is. Successful traders weren't born successful; they were taught or they learned. Successful traders don't have mystical powers well, except for Pipcrawler, but he's more weird than he is mystical and they can't see the future. What they can do is see through the blur that is forex news and data, pick what's important to traders at the moment, and make the right trading decisions.

Where to Go for Market Information Market news and data is made available to you through a multitude of sources. The internet is the obvious winner in our book, as it provides a wealth of options, at the speed of light, directly to your screen, with access from almost anywhere in the world. But don't forget about print media and the good old tube sitting in your living room or kitchen. Individual traders will be amazed at the sheer number of currency-specific websites, services, and TV programming available to them.

Most of them are free of charge, while you may have to pay for some of the others. Let's go over our favorites to help you get started. Websites Our top pick of a forex news-specific website is FreshPips.

Make a mental note that the name of the website is eerily similar to the one you're currently on. Oh wait, FreshPips.

com is just another apple out of the basket of "Pips. com" websites see all of them here. We're not ashamed about promoting FreshPips. Put on this planet to help you unearth and share interesting and useful forex news and research, handpicked from the web by forex traders, from the biggest news sites to little known blogs, FreshPips.

com reveals the finest materials as voted on by our users to help you become a smarter forex trader. It covers the areas of analysis, commentary, economic indicators, psychology, and specific currencies. Traditional Financial News Sources While there are tons of financial news resources out there, we advise you to stick with the big names.

These guys provide around-the-clock coverage of the markets, with daily updates on the big news that you need to be aware of, such as central bank announcements, economic report releases and analysis, etc.

Many of these big players also have institutional contacts that provide explanations about the current events of the day to the viewing public. Financial TV networks exist 24 hours a day, seven days a week to provide you up-to-the-minute action on all of the world's financial markets.

In the U. You could even throw a little BBC in there. Another option for real-time data comes from your trading platform. Many brokers include live newsfeeds directly in their software to give you easy and immediate access to events and news of the currency market. Check your broker for availability of such features not all brokers features are created equally.

It's all possible with an economic calendar. The good ones let you look at different months and years, let you sort by currency, and let you assign your local time zone. Yes, economic events and data reports take place more frequently than most people can keep up with. This data has the potential to move markets in the short term and accelerate the movement of currency pairs you might be watching.

Lucky for you, most economic news that's important to forex traders is scheduled several months in advance. So which calendar do we recommend? We look no further than our very own BabyPips. com forex Economic Calendar to provide all that goodness! If you don't like ours which we highly doubt , a simple Yahoogleing search will offer up a nice collection for you to examine.

Market Information Tips Keep in mind the timeliness of the reports you read. A lot of this stuff has already occurred and the market has already adjusted prices to take the report into account.

If the market has already made its move, you might have to adjust your thinking and current strategy. Keep tabs on just how old this news is or you'll find yourself "yesterday's news. Economic data rumors do exist, and they can occur minutes to several hours before a scheduled release of data.

The rumors help to produce some short-term trader action, and they can sometimes also have a lasting effect on market sentiment. Institutional traders are also often rumored to be behind large moves, but it's hard to know the truth with a decentralized market like spot forex. There's never a simple way of verifying the truth. Your job as a trader is to create a good trading plan and quickly react to such news about rumors, after they've been proven true or false. Having a well-rounded risk management plan in this case could save you some moolah!

And the final tip: Know who is reporting the news. Are we talking analysts or economists, economist or the owner of the newest forex blog on the block? Maybe a central bank analyst? The more reading and watching you do of forex news and media, the more finance and currency professionals you'll be exposed to. Are they offering merely an opinion or a stated fact based on recently released data? The more you know about the "Who", the better off you will be in understanding how accurate the news is.

Those who report the news often have their own agenda and have their own strengths and weaknesses. Get to know the people that "know", so YOU "know". Can you dig it? Market Reaction There's no one "All in" or "Bet the Farm" formula for success when it comes to predicting how the market will react to data reports or market events or even why it reacts the way it does.

You can draw on the fact that there's usually an initial response, which is usually short-lived, but full of action. Later on comes the second reaction, where traders have had some time to reflect on the implications of the news or report on the current market. It's at this point when the market decides if the news release went along with or against the existing expectation, and if it reacted accordingly.

Was the outcome of the report expected or not? And what does the initial response of the market tell us about the bigger picture? Answering those questions gives us place to start interpreting the ensuing price action.

Consensus Expectations A consensus expectation, or just consensus, is the relative agreement on upcoming economic or news forecasts. Economic forecasts are made by various leading economists from banks, financial institutions and other securities related entities. Your favorite news personality gets into the mix by surveying her in-house economist and collection of financial sound "players" in the market.

All the forecasts get pooled together and averaged out, and it's these averages that appear on charts and calendars designating the level of expectation for that report or event.

The consensus becomes ground zero; the incoming, or actual data is compared against this baseline number. Incoming data normally gets identified in the following manner:  "As expected" - the reported data was close to or at the consensus forecast. Whether or not incoming data meets consensus is an important evaluation for determining price action. Just as important is the determination of how much better or worse the actual data is to the consensus forecast.

Larger degrees of inaccuracy increase the chance and extent to which the price may change once the report is out. However, let's remember that forex traders are smart, and can be ahead of the curve. Well the good ones, anyway. Many currency traders have already "priced in" consensus expectations into their trading and into the market well before the report is scheduled, let alone released. As the name implies, pricing in refers to traders having a view on the outcome of an event and placing bets on it before the news comes out.

The more likely a report is to shift the price, the sooner traders will price in consensus expectations. How can you tell if this is the case with the current market? Well, that's a tough one. You can't always tell, so you have to take it upon yourself to stay on top of what the market commentary is saying and what price action is doing before a report gets released.

This will give you an idea as to how much the market has priced in. A lot can happen before a report is released, so keep your eyes and ears peeled. Market sentiment can improve or get worse just before a release, so be aware that price can react with or against the trend. There is always the possibility that a data report totally misses expectations, so don't bet the farm away on the expectations of others.

When the miss occurs, you'll be sure to see price movement occur. Help yourself out for such an event by anticipating it and other possible outcomes to happen. Play the "what if" game. Ask yourself, "What if A happens? What if B happens?

How will traders react or change their bets? What if the report comes in under expectation by half a percent? How many pips down will price move? What would need to happen with this report that could cause a 40 pip drop? Come up with your different scenarios and be prepared to react to the market's reaction.

Being proactive in this manner will keep you ahead of the game. What the Deuce? They Revised the Data? Now what? Too many questions in that title.

But that's right, economic data can and will get revised. That's just how economic reports roll! Let's take the monthly Non-Farm Payroll employment numbers NFP as an example. As stated, this report comes out monthly, usually included with it are revisions of the previous month's numbers. We'll assume that the U. economy is in a slump and January's NFP figure decreases by 50,, which is the number of jobs lost. It's now February, and NFP is expected to decrease by another 35, But the incoming NFP actually decreases by only 12,, which is totally unexpected.

Also, January's revised data, which appears in the February report, was revised upwards to show only a 20, decrease. As a trader you have to be aware of situations like this when data is revised. Not having known that January data was revised, you might have a negative reaction to an additional 12, jobs lost in February.

That's still two months of decreases in employment, which ain't good. However, taking into account the upwardly revised NFP figure for January and the better than expected February NFP reading, the market might see the start of a turning point.

The state of employment now looks totally different when you look at incoming data AND last month's revised data. Be sure not only to determine if revised data exists, but also note the scale of the revision. Bigger revisions carry more weight when analyzing the current data releases.

Revisions can help to affirm a possibly trend change or no change at all, so be aware of what's been released. Market Sentiment The market has feelings too, you know. Get ready to learn all about market sentiment! Lessons in Market Sentiment 1. What is Market Sentiment Every trader has his own opinion about the market.

The combined feeling that market participants have, that's what you call market sentiment, young Padawan. Commitment of Traders Report Gauging market sentiment may not be as difficult as you think. The Commitment of Traders COT report can be a clue on whether the market is bearish or bullish. How do you get a hold of the COT report? It's as easy as , baby! Understanding the Three Groups Meet the different playas in the futures trading field: hedgers, large speculators, and small speculators!

The COT Trading Strategy Yeah, we know. The COT report looks like a giant gobbled-up block of text. But don't fret! There's actually a pretty simple way to use it.

Picking Tops and Bottoms When the market sentiment shifts, should you go with the speculators or the hedgers? Your Very Own COT Indicator Studying the School of Pipsology is about to get sweeter! Are you ready to create your very own COT indicator? Getting Down and Dirty with the Numbers Put your thinking caps on because we're gonna get down and dirty with the numbers to calculate for the percentage of speculative positions!

What is Market Sentiment How's Mr. Market Feeling? Every trader will always have an opinion about the market. I'm pretty bullish on the markets right now. When trading, traders express this view in whatever trade he takes.

But sometimes, no matter how convinced a trader is that the markets will move in a particular direction, and no matter how pretty all the trend lines line up, the trader may still end up losing. A trader must realize that the overall market is a combination of all the views, ideas and opinions of all the participants in the market.

That's right This combined feeling that market participants have is what we call market sentiment. It is the dominating emotion or idea that the majority of the market feels best explains the current direction of the market.

How to Develop a Sentiment-Based Approach As a trader, it is your job to gauge what the market is feeling. Are the indicators pointing towards bullish conditions? Are traders bearish on the economy? We can't tell the market what we think it should do. But what we can do is react in response to what is happening in the markets.

Note that using the market sentiment approach doesn't give a precise entry and exit for each trade. But don't despair! Having a sentiment-based approach can help you decide whether you should go with the flow or not. Of course, you can always combine market sentiment analysis with technical and fundamental analysis to come up with better trade ideas.

In stocks and options, traders can look at volume traded as an indicator of sentiment. If a stock price has been rising, but volume is declining, it may signal that the market is overbought. Or if a declining stock suddenly reversed on high volume, it means the market sentiment may have changed from bearish to bullish.

Unfortunately, since the foreign exchange market is traded over-the-counter, it doesn't have a centralized market. This means that the volume of each currency traded cannot be easily measured. OH NOOOO!!!!

Without any tools to measure volume, how can a trader measure market sentiment?! This is where the Commitment of Traders report comes in! Commitment of Traders Report The COT Report: What, Where, When, Why, and How The Commodity Futures Trading Commission, or CFTC, publishes the Commitment of Traders report COT every Friday, around pm EST. Because the COT measures the net long and short positions taken by speculative traders and commercial traders, it is a great resource to gauge how heavily these market players are positioned in the market.

Later on, we'll let you meet these market players. These are the hedgers, large speculators, and retail traders.

Just like players in a team sport, each group has its unique characteristics and roles. By watching the behavior of these players, you'll be able to foresee incoming changes in market sentiment. You're probably asking yourself, "Why the heck do I need to use data from the FX futures market?

Activity in the futures market doesn't involve me. So what's the closest thing we can get our hands on to see the state of the market and how the big players are moving their money? Yep, you got it The Commitment of Traders report from the futures market. Before going into using the Commitment of Traders report in your trading strategy, you have to first know WHERE to go to get the COT report and HOW to read it.

htm Step 2: Once the page has loaded, scroll down a couple of pages to the "Current Legacy Report" and click on "Short Format" under "Futures Only" on the "Chicago Mercantile Exchange" row to access the most recent COT report. Step 3: It may seem a little intimidating at first because it looks like a big giant gobbled-up block of text but with a little bit of effort, you can find exactly what you're looking for.

To find the British Pound Sterling, or GBP, for example, just search up "Pound Sterling" and you'll be taken directly to a section that looks something like this: Yowza!

What the heck is this?! We'll explain each category below. For the most part, these are traders who looking to trade for speculative gains. In other words, these are traders just like you who are in it for the Benjamins! If you want to access all available historical data, you can view it here.

You can see a lot of things in the report but you don't have to memorize all of it. As a budding trader, you'll only be focusing on answering the basic question: "Wat da dilly on da market yo?! These players could be categorized into three basic groups: 1.

Commercial traders Hedgers 2. Non-commercial traders Large Speculators 3. Retail traders Small Speculators Don't Skip the Commercial - The Hedgers Hedgers or commercial traders are those who want to protect themselves against unexpected price movements. Agricultural producers or farmers who want to hedge minimize their risk in changing commodity prices are part of this group. Banks or corporations who are looking to protect themselves against sudden price changes in currencies or other assets are also considered commercial traders.

A key characteristic of hedgers is that they are most bullish at market bottoms and most bearish at market tops. What the hedgehog does this mean? Here's a real life example to illustrate: There is a virus outbreak in the U. that turns people into zombies. Zombies run amok doing malicious things like grabbing strangers' iPhones to download fart apps.

It's total mayhem as people become disoriented and helpless without their beloved iPhones. This must be stopped now before the nation crumbles into oblivion! Guns and bullets apparently don't work on the zombies. The only way to exterminate them is by chopping their heads off. Apple sees a "market need" and decides to build a private Samurai army to protect vulnerable iPhone users.

It needs to import samurai swords from Japan. Steve Jobs contacts a Japanese samurai swordsmith who demands to be paid in Japanese yen when he finishes the swords after three months. In order to protect itself, or rather, hedge against currency risk, the firm buys JPY futures.

In It to Win It - The Large Speculators In contrast to hedgers, who are not interested in making profits from trading activities, speculators are in it for the money and have no interest in owning the underlying asset! Many speculators are known as hardcore trend followers since they buy when the market is on an uptrend and sell when the market is on a downtrend. They keep adding to their position until the price movement reverses. Large speculators are also big players in the futures market since they hold huge accounts.

As a result, their trading activities can cause the market to move dramatically. They usually follow moving averages and hold their positions until the trend changes.

Cannon fodders - The Small Speculators Small speculators, on the other hand, own smaller retail accounts. These comprise of hedge funds and individual traders. They are known to be anti-trend and are usually on the wrong side of the market. Because of that, they are typically less successful than hedgers and commercial traders.

However, when they do follow the trend, they tend to be highly concentrated at market tops or bottoms. The COT Trading Strategy Since the COT comes out weekly, its usefulness as a market sentiment indicator would be more suitable for longer-term trades. The question you may be asking now is this: How the heck do you turn all that "big giant gobbled-up block of text" into a sentiment-based indicator that will help you grab some pips?!

One way to use the COT report in your trading is to find extreme net long or net short positions. Finding these positions may signal that a market reversal is just around the corner because if everyone is long a currency, who is left to buy? No one. And if everyone is short a currency, who is left to sell? What's that? Pretty quiet Yeah, that's right. NO ONE. One analogy to keep in mind is to imagine driving down a road and hitting a dead end.

What happens if you hit that dead end? You can't keep going since there's no more road ahead. The only thing to do is to turn back. At the same time, on the bottom half, we've got data on the long and short positions of EUR futures, divided into three categories:  Commercial traders blue  Large Non-commercial green  Small non-commercial red Ignore the commercial positions for now, since those are mainly for hedging while small retail traders aren't relevant.

Let's take a look at what happened mid-way through Soon after, investors started to buy back EUR futures. Over the next year, the net value of EUR futures position gradually turned positive. In early October , EUR futures net long positions hit an extreme of 51, before reversing.

Holy Guacamole! Just by using the COT as an indicator, you could have caught two crazy moves from October to January and November to March The first was in mid-September This would have resulted in almost a 2,pip gain in a matter of a few months!

With those two moves, using just the COT report as a market sentiment reversal indicator, you could have grabbed a total of 3, pips. Pretty nifty, eh? Picking Tops and Bottoms As you would've guessed, ideal places to go long and short are those times when sentiment is at an extreme. If you noticed from the previous example, the speculators green line and commercials blue line gave opposite signals. While hedgers buy when the market is bottoming, speculators sell as the price moves down.

As a result, speculative positioning indicates trend direction while commercial positioning could signal reversals. If hedgers keep increasing their long positions while speculators increase their short positions, a market bottom could be in sight.

If hedgers keep adding more short positions while speculators keep adding more long positions, a market top could occur.

Of course, it's difficult to determine the exact point where a sentiment extreme will occur so it might be best to do nothing until signs of an actual reversal are seen.

We could say that speculators, because they follow the trend, catch most of the move BUT are wrong on turning points. Commercial traders, on the other hand, miss most of the trend EXCEPT when price reverses. Until a sentiment extreme occurs, it would be best to go with the speculators. The basic rule is this: every market top or bottom is accompanied by a sentiment extreme, but not every sentiment extreme results in a market top or bottom.

Your Very Own COT Indicator Having your very own COT indicator is like having your own pony. Using the COT report can be quite useful as a tool in spotting potential reversals in the market.

There's one problem though, we cannot simply look at the absolute figures printed on the COT report and say, "Aha, it looks like the market has hit an extreme I will short and buy myself 10,, pairs of socks. What may have been an extreme level five years ago may no longer be an extreme level this year.

How do you deal with this problem? What you want to do is create an index that will help you gauge whether the markets are at extreme levels. Below is a step-by-step process on how to create this index. Decide how long of a period we want to cover. The more values we input into the index, the less sentiment extreme signals we will receive, but the more reliable it will be. Having less input values will result in more signals, although it might lead to more false positives.

Calculate the difference between the positions of large speculators and commercial traders for each week. This would result in a positive figure. On the other hand, if large speculators are extremely short, that would mean that commercial traders are extremely long and this would result in a negative figure. Rank these results in ascending order, from most negative to most positive. Assign a value of to the largest number and 0 to the smallest figure.

And now we have a COT indicator! This is very similar to the RSI and stochastic indicators that we've discussed in earlier lessons. Once we have assigned values to each of the calculated differences, we should be alerted whenever new data inputted into the index shows an extreme - 0 or This would indicate that the difference between the positions of the two groups is largest, and that a reversal may be imminent.

Remember, we are interested in knowing whether the trend is going to continue or if it is going to end. If the COT report reveals that the markets are at extreme levels, it would help pinpoint those tops and bottoms that we all love so much. We dug around the forums and found this little gold nugget for you. Apparently you can download the COT indicator if you're trading on an MT4 platform and you can find the link in our COT data to indicator forum thread!

Recall that not every sentiment extreme results in a market top or bottom so we'll need a more accurate indicator. Calculating the percentage of speculative positions that are long or short would be a better gauge to see whether the market is topping or bottoming out.

Going through the COT reports released on the week ending August 22, , speculators were net short 28, contracts. On March 20, , they were net short 23, contracts. From this information alone, you would say that there is a higher probability of a market bottom in August since there were more speculators that were short in that period. But hold on a minute there You didn't think it would be THAT easy right? A closer look would show that 66, contracts were short while 38, contracts were long.

On the other hand, there were just 8, long contracts and 32, short contracts in March. What does this mean? There is a higher chance that a bottom will occur when As you can see on the chart below, the bottom in fact did not occur around August , when the Canadian dollar was worth roughly around 94 U.

The Canadian dollar continued to fall over the next few months. Then what happened? It started to steadily rise! A market bottom? Yep, you got it. Before we start betting the farm based on our analysis of the COT report, remember that those were just specific cases of when the COT report signalled a perfect market reversal. The best thing to do would be to back test and look at reasons why a reversal took place. Was the economy booming? Or was it in the middle of a recession? Remember, the COT report measures the sentiment of traders during a specific period of time.

Like every other tool in your toolbox, using the COT report as an indicator does not always correlate to market reversals. So take the time to study this report and get your own feel of what works and what doesn't.

Also, before we bring this lesson to an end, always keep in mind that market prices aren't driven by solely COT reports, stochastic, Fibonacci levels, etc. The markets are driven by the millions of people reacting to economic analysis, fundamental reports, politics, Godzilla attacks, UFO sightings, Lady Gaga concerts - life in general!

It is how you use these tools that will help you be prepared to what lies ahead. In conclusion Trading the News Extra! Reading up on the news reports may just reel you in a handful of pips! Lessons in Trading the News 1. Importance of News Like how things are in the world of Star Wars, there is always fundamental force behind each movement in the market. Why Trade the News Trading the news is a double-edged sword.

Sure, you can earn a lot of money by doing it but you also stand to lose a lot in times of increased volatility! Which News Reports are Trade-Worthy? The most-watched news reports are from the U. Can you guess why? Directional Bias vs. Non-Directional Bias "Buy the rumor, sell the news. Trading with a Directional Bias Let's take a look at an example on deciding whether to go long or short before a report is released. Letting the Market Decide Which Direction to Take Okay, you already know which market-moving report to trade.

What do you do next if you want to let the market decide which side to take? Summary: Trading the News You could get burned a couple of times by trading the news so practice, practice, practice! It will be very rewarding once you get the hand of it. Importance of News It's not enough to only know technical analysis when you trade. It's just as important to know what makes the market move. Just like in the great Star Wars world, behind the trend lines, double tops, and head and shoulder patterns, there is a fundamental force behind these movements.

This force is called the news! To understand the importance of the news, imagine this scenario purely fictional of course! Let's say, on your nightly news, there is a report that the biggest software company that you have stock with just filed bankruptcy. What's the first thing you would do? How would your perception of this company change?

How do you think other people's perceptions of this company would change? The obvious reaction would be that you would immediately sell off your shares.

In fact, this is probably what just about everyone else who had any stake in that company would do. The fact is that news affects the way we perceive and act on our trading decisions. It's no different when it comes to trading currencies. There is, however, a distinct difference with how news is handled in the stock market and the forex market.

Let's go back to our example above and imagine that you heard that same report of the big software company filing bankruptcy, but let's say you heard the report a day before it was actually announced in the news. Naturally you would sell off all your shares, and as a result of you hearing the news a day earlier, you would make save more money than everyone else who heard it on their nightly news. Sounds good for you right? Unfortunately this little trick is called INSIDER TRADING, and it would have you thrown in jail.

Martha Stewart did it and now she has a nice mug-shot to go along with her magazine covers. In the stock market, when you hear news before everyone else it is illegal. In the forex market, it's called FAIR GAME! The earlier you hear or see the news, the better it is for your trading, and there is absolutely no penalty for it! Add on some technology and the power of instant communication, and what you have is the latest and greatest or not so greatest news at the tip of your fingers.

This is great to react fairly quickly to the market's speculations. Big traders, small traders, husky traders, or skinny traders all have to depend on the same news to make the market move because if there wasn't any news, the market would hardly move at all!

The news is important to the Forex market because it's the news that makes it move. Regardless of the technicals, news is the fuel that keeps the market going! Why Trade the News The simple answer to that question is "To make more money!

When news comes out, especially important news that everyone is watching, you can almost expect to see some major movement. Your goal as a trader is to get on the right side of the move, but the fact that you know the market will most likely move somewhere makes it an opportunity definitely worth looking at. Dangers of trading the news As with any trading strategy, there are always possible dangers that you should be aware of.

Here are some of those dangers: Because the market is very volatile during important news events, many dealers widen the spread during these times. This increases trading costs and could hurt your bottom line. You could also get "locked out" which means that your trade could be executed at the right time but may not show up in your trading station for a few minutes.

Obviously this is bad for you because you won't be able to make any adjustments if the trade moves against you! Imagine thinking you didn't get triggered, so you try to enter at market then you realize that your original ordered got triggered! You'd be risking twice as much now! You could also experience slippage. Slippage occurs when you wish to enter the market at a certain price, but due to the extreme volatility during these events, you actually get filled at a far different price.

Big market moves made by news events often don't move in one direction. Often times the market may start off flying in one direction, only to be whipsawed back in the other direction. Trying to find the right direction can sometimes be a headache! Profitable as it may be, trading the news isn't as easy as beating Pipcrawler at Call of Duty.

It will take tons of practice, practice and you guessed it more practice! Most importantly, you must ALWAYS have a plan in place. In the following lessons, we'll give you some tips on how to trade news reports. Before we even look at strategies for trading news events, we have to look at which news events are even worth trading. Remember that we are trading the news because of its ability to increase volatility in the short term, so naturally we would like to only trade news that has the best market moving potential.

While the markets react to most economic news from various countries, the biggest movers and most watched news comes from the U. The reason is that the U. has the largest economy in the world and the U. Dollar is the world's reserve currency.

This means that the U. news and data important to watch. With that said, let's take a look at some of the most volatile news for the U. In addition to inflation reports and central bank talks, you should also pay attention to geo- political news such as war, natural disasters, political unrest, and elections.

Although these may not have as big an impact as the other news, it's still worth paying attention to them. When our economic guru Forex Gump is in a good mood, he usually releases a Piponomics article on upcoming news reports that you can play and with trade strategies to boot!

Check out some of his articles of this sort: Trade the News This Week 4 News Reports You Can Trade this Week Trade the U. Retail Sales Report With Me Make Pips with this Week's Big Reports Also, keep an eye on moves in the stock market. There are times where sentiment in the equity markets will be the precursor to major moves in the forex market.

Now that we know which news events make the most moves, our next step is to determine which currency pairs are worth trading. Because news can bring increased volatility in the forex market and more trading opportunities , it is important that we trade currencies that are liquid. Liquid currency pairs give us a reassurance that our orders will be executed smoothly and without any "hiccups". These are all major currency pairs! Remember, because they have the most liquidity, majors pairs usually have the tightest spreads.

Since spreads widen when news reports come out, it makes sense to stick with those pairs that have the tightest spreads to begin with. Now that we know which news events and currency pairs to trade, let's take a look at some approaches to trading the news.

Non-Directional Bias There are two main ways to trade the news: a Having a directional bias b Having a non-directional bias Directional Bias Having directional bias means that you expect the market to move a certain direction once the news report is released.

When looking for a trade opportunity in a certain direction, it is good to know what it is about news reports that cause the market to move. Consensus vs. Actual Several days or even weeks before a news report comes out, there are analysts that will come up with some kind of forecast on what numbers will be released.

As we talked about in a previous lesson, this number will be different among various analysts, but in general there will be a common number that a majority of them agree on. This number is called a consensus. When a news report is released, the number that is given is called the actual number. For example, let's say that the U. unemployment rate is expected to increase. Imagine that last month the unemployment rate was at 8.

With a consensus at 9. economy, and as a result, a weaker Dollar. So with this anticipation, big market players aren't going to wait until the report is actually released to start acting on taking a position. They will go ahead and start selling off their dollars for other currencies before the actual number is released. Now let's say that the actual unemployment rate is released and as expected, it reports 9.

As a retail trader, you see this and think "Okay, this is bad news for the U. It's time to short the dollar! Now let's revisit this example, but this time, imagine that the actual report released an unemployment rate of 8. The market players thought the unemployment rate would rise to 9.

What you would see on your charts would be a huge dollar rally across the board because the big market players didn't expect this to happen. Now that the report is released and it says something totally different from what they had anticipated, they are all trying to adjust their positions as fast as possible. This would also happen if the actual report released an unemployment rate of The only difference would be that instead of the dollar rallying, it would drop like a rock!

Since the market consensus was 9. looks a lot weaker now than when the forecasts were first released. Keeping track of the market consensus and the actual numbers, you can better gauge which news reports will actually cause the market to move and in what direction. Non-directional bias A more common news trading strategy is the non-directional bias approach. This method disregards a directional bias and simply plays on the fact that a big news report will create a big move.

It doesn't matter which way it moves We just want to be there when it does! What this means is that once the market moves in either direction, you have a plan in place to enter that trade. You don't have any bias as to whether price will go up or down, hence the name non-directional bias. Trading with a Directional Bias Let's go back to our example of the U.

unemployment rate report. Earlier, we gave examples of what could happen if the report came in light with expectations, or slightly better. Let's say there was a surprising drop. What effect could this have on the dollar? One thing that could happen is that the dollar falls.

Isn't the dollar supposed to rise if the unemployment rate is dropping? There could be a couple reasons why the dollar could still fall even though there are more people with jobs. The first reason could be that the long-term and overall trend of the U. economy is still in a downward spiral.

Remember that there are several fundamental factors that play into an economy's strength or weakness. Although the unemployment rate dropped, it might not be a big enough catalyst for the big traders to start changing their perception of the dollar.

The second reason could be the reason for the unemployment rate drop. Perhaps it's right after Thanksgiving during the holiday rush. During this time, many companies normally hire seasonal employees to keep up with the influx of Christmas shoppers.

This increase in jobs may cause a short term drop in the unemployment rate, but it's not at all indicative of the long term outlook on the U. A better way to get a more accurate measure of the unemployment situation would be to look at the number from last year and compare it to this year.

This would allow you to see if the job market actually improved or not. The important thing to remember is to always take a step back and look at the overall picture before making any quick decisions.

Now that you have that information in your head, it's time to see how we can trade the news with a directional bias. Let's stick with our unemployment rate example to keep it simple. By looking at what has been happening in the past, you can prepare yourself for what might happen in the future. Imagine that the unemployment rate has been steadily increasing. You could now say with some confidence that jobs are decreasing and that there is a good possibility the unemployment rate will continue to rise.

Since you are expecting the unemployment rate to rise, you can now start preparing to go short on the dollar. Take note of the high and low that is made. This will become your breakout points. Since you have a bearish outlook on the dollar, you would pay particular attention to the lower breakout point of that range.

You are expecting the dollar to drop so a reasonable strategy would be to set an entry point a few pips below that level. You could then set a stop just at the upper breakout point and set your limit for the same amount of pips as the breakout point range. One of two things could happen at this point. If the unemployment rate drops then the dollar could rise.

No harm no foul! Or if the news is as you expected and the unemployment rate rises, the dollar could drop assuming the entire fundamental outlook on the dollar is already bearish. This is good for you because you already set up a trade that was bearish on the dollar and now all you have to do is watch your trade unfold. Later on, you see that your target gets hit. You just grabbed yourself a handful of pips! The key to having a directional bias is that you must truly understand the concepts behind the news report that you plan to trade.

If you don't understand what effect it can have on particular currencies, then you might get caught up in some bad setups. Luckily for you, we've got Pip Diddy and Forex Gump to help explain what effect each report can have on the forex market. Letting the Market Decide Which Direction to Take The first thing to consider is which news reports to trade. Earlier in this lesson we discussed the biggest moving news reports.

Ideally you would want to only trade those reports because there is a high probability the market will make a big move after their release.

The next thing you should do is take a look at the range at least 20 minutes before the actual news release. The high of that range will be your upper breakout point, and the low of that range will be your lower breakout point.

Note that the smaller the range is the more likely it is you will see a big move from the news report. The breakout points will be your entry levels. This is where you want to set your orders.

Your stops should be placed approximately 20 pips below and above the breakout points, and your initial targets should be about the same as the range of the breakout levels. This is known as a straddle trade - you are looking to play both sides of the trades, whichever trade it moves. Now that you're prepared to enter the market in either direction, all you have to do is wait for the news to come out. Sometimes you may get triggered in one direction only to find that you get stopped out because the price quickly reverses in the other direction.

However, your other entry will get triggered and if that trade wins, you should recoup your initial losses and come out with a small profit. A best case scenario would be that only one of your trades gets triggered and the price continues to move in your favor so that you don't incur any losses. Either way, if done correctly you should still end up positive for the day. One thing that makes a non-directional bias approach attractive is that it eliminates any emotions - you just want to profit when the move happens.

This allows you take advantage of more trading opportunities, because you will be triggered either way. There are many more strategies for trading the news, but the concepts mentioned in this lesson should always be part of your routine whenever you are working out an approach to taking advantage of news report movements.

Summary: Trading the News There you have it! Now you know how to trade the news! Just keep these things in mind when trading:  When you have a directional bias, you are expecting price to move a certain direction, and you've got your orders in already.

You just want to get triggered. That's pretty much it Is it really that easy??? HECK NO!!!

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Trading is risky. Please consult with your financial adviser before making any trading or investment decision. Michael Martin. wilson putra. this is something you have looking for when making serious decision about Dollar investment stuff. Abdul Basit. Channa Khieng. Nick erem. Javier Rivera. Learn about the stock market and how to predict the market. Yuva raj. Want to see more pro tips even better than Candlesticks? Click the button below to learn more.

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Technical Analysis. The Art of Japanese Candlestick Charting. i Introduction. Looking Inside the Inside Bar for Day Trading. Day Trading With Only The Period Moving Average 39 5. How to Enter the Market as a Price Action Trader. Forex Price Action Re-Entry Trading Strategy.

Price Action Trading Tips from the Reminiscences of a Stock Operator. All rights reserved. First Edition, October Published by Galen Woods Singapore Business Registration No. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, without written permission from the publisher, except as permitted by Singapore Copyright Laws.

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Looking Inside the Inside Bar for Day Trading Looking Inside the Inside Bar Two weeks ago, I saw an inside bar forming in the ES futures contract chart right in front of me. I pondered over this popular bar pattern. Armed with my Ninjatrader software, I decided to peer inside the inside bar and find out what makes an inside bar tick. We will examine if the following factors affect the performance of inside bars. This is the benchmark in our evaluation.

Volume No. The smaller the range, the more agreeable the traders are. When traders agree, prices stagnate and breakouts tend to fail. We computed the range of the inside bar as a fraction of the range of its preceding bar.

Range No. However, the samples sizes are relatively small, especially for narrow range inside bars which gave only 32 trades. It means that neither the bulls nor the bears are winning. On the other hand, if the open-to-close spread is wide, it means that the bar, despite being an inside bar, is relatively directional.

I could use some candlestick terminology here. If the body takes up more than half of the entire candlestick, it is directional. If not, it is considered a doji for our purpose. Spread No. The performance of both directional bars and dojis does not differ too much from our benchmark. If an inside bar closes higher than it opened, it is a bullish bar suited for long trades. This is because it shows momentum in our favor, confirming that the trend is with us. Hence, we restricted our long trades to only bullish inside bars, and short trades to only bearish inside bars, in order to have our signal bars support our trades.

The reverse is also tested. Choosing inside bars that support our trades is a better trading strategy. Looking Inside the Inside Bar for Day Trading 5 1. These are bars that barely make it as inside bars and represent only a slight contraction. We also found that inside bars that closed in our trade direction seems to have an edge. Inside bars that support our trades did considerably better than inside bars that did not.

The other two factors open-to-close spread and volume did not show significant improvement. We focused on wide range inside bars that closed in the direction of our trade, and ran our test again on several other futures contract to see if our results are robust. Instrument All Inside Filtered Difference Bars Inside Bars ES

It's that individual's role to be the voice of that central bank, conveying to the market which direction monetary policy is headed. Pretty nifty, eh? Unfortunately, since the foreign exchange market is traded over-the-counter, it doesn't have a centralized market. Some day traders are anxious to make money. Instances where the interest rates of the two countries move in opposite directions often produce some of the market's largest swing. Forex Patterns and Probabilities: Trading Strategies for Trending and Range-Bound Markets.

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